By all major political indicators, 2022 should have delivered the type of shellacking that the president’s party typically endures in midterm elections: Over 70% of voters believed the country was on the wrong track, 76% rated the economy negatively, and President Biden’s approval rating of 43% has historically resulted in […] Read more »
How Trump’s legacy became ‘pure poison’ for independents
The highly touted red wave in last month’s midterm election failed to develop largely because it hit a wall of resistance among independent voters, especially across the key battleground states. And that presents difficult questions for Republicans looking forward to 2024. The GOP’s disappointing showing among independents this year marked […] Read more »
Focus Group Report: Heading into Midterms, Democrats Were Motivated by Republican Attacks on Rights and Democracy
On October 20, 2022, GBAO conducted three focus groups online with Democratic and Independent voters who varied across demographics—age, education, and race. Key takeaways• Democrats are acutely worried about abortion, extremist Republicans, and political division.• Some see economic improvements, while others feel pessimistic.• Discussing the “middle class” further reveals pessimism […] Read more »
These 17 Swing Voters Have a Very Clear Message for Donald Trump
When Donald Trump was president, you rarely heard Trump voters blame him when anything went wrong; it was the Democrats’ fault, usually, or the deep state or Robert Mueller or the F.B.I. or was due to any number of conspiracy theories. Which is why it was striking, during our focus […] Read more »
Calcified Politics Gives Us Another Close Election
Just as Democrats did in 2020, Republicans came into the 2022 midterms expecting a landslide. Sky-high inflation, an unpopular President, and pessimism about the direction of the country all pointed to a ‘typical’ midterm romp for the party out of power. But, as we have written extensively over the last […] Read more »
Swing voters are America’s unpredictable powerhouse
Swing voters often determine who wins national elections — but they don’t swing for the reasons that much of the media and many politicians imply. … What’s actually going on with swing voters? Based on previous election cycles and scholarly research, here are four ways to think about them: Swing […] Read more »