Titanic Tuesday: Trump Leads but Doesn’t Finish the Job

Donald Trump could have generated unstoppable momentum had he won both Ohio and Florida. But now it’s clear to everyone that this will go right through June 7, the end of the Republican primary season. Most observers appear to think that the Republicans are headed for a contested convention now, […] Read more »

Trump’s Path Stays Clearest; Clinton’s, Perhaps More So

This much came clear in the March 15 presidential primaries: Many voters like Donald Trump, while many others don’t. John Kasich is popular in his home state, while Marco Rubio isn’t. Strong conservatives support Ted Cruz. And Hillary Clinton can win Midwestern primaries. For Clinton, that might be enough, or […] Read more »

For the Anti-Trump Forces, It May Be Now or Never

As we’ve suggested, the past few weeks have been defined by increasingly-loud talk of a contested convention and the possibility that the presidential contest will go beyond the first ballot, something that has not happened in either party since 1952. The highly unusual circumstances on the Republican side, where the […] Read more »

CBS/YouGov online poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida

Donald Trump keeps his lead in winner-take-all Florida, at 44 percent over Ted Cruz’s 24 percent and Marco Rubio’s 21 percent. In Ohio, Governor John Kasich is tied with Trump 33 percent to 33 percent, in two of the big winner-take-all delegate prizes up on Tuesday. … On the Democratic […] Read more »

Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio

Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in the March 15 primary states of Florida and Illinois, while John Kasich holds the edge in his home state of Ohio, according to three new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. On the Democratic side, meanwhile, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in all […] Read more »

A Simple Model for Predicting Hillary Clinton’s Vote in the March 15 Democratic Primaries

A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s […] Read more »

These States Could Pick the GOP Nominee, Each for Different Reasons

… As Republicans gathered for their latest debate in Las Vegas this week, more GOP strategists believe their presidential marathon is evolving toward a three-way contest that could divide the party along sharp demographic and geographic lines well into 2016. CONT. Ronald Brownstein, National Journal Read more »

A Midwest Advantage for Scott Walker?

You can call it the Rust Belt or the Industrial Midwest if you like, but when presidential election time comes you should call it precious real estate. The seven states that hold the schools that comprised the old, pre-expansion Big Ten athletic conference – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio […] Read more »