The demographics of the #resistance

Ninety percent of the protesters at the Women’s March on Washington voted for Hillary Clinton. Liz Lemon/Flickr Dana R. Fisher, University of Maryland; Dawn Marie Dow, University of Maryland, and Rashawn Ray, University of Maryland Since the inauguration of Donald Trump, hundreds of thousands of people have marched on Washington, […] Read more »

A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump

Nearly seven months after the presidential election, pollsters are still trying to answer a question that has rattled trust in their profession: Why did pre-election polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald J. Trump in the battleground states that decided the presidency? Is political polling fundamentally broken? Or were the errors […] Read more »

Black Voters Aren’t Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party

… Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group’s historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. It’s possible that Clinton could never inspire black turnout the way the first African-American president could. But even if this shift is more […] Read more »

Survey Suggests American Voters Have More in Common Than You Might Think

Conventional wisdom states that the political landscape has Americans more divided than ever, but new research suggests there is plenty Americans do agree on. Following the contentious 2016 presidential election, Deep Roots Analytics, a firm co-founded by former Mitt Romney campaign director of data science Alex Lundry, conducted a survey […] Read more »

Fox News Poll: Trump approval down, voters support special counsel on Russia

American voters disagree with President Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey, think the dismissal was for self-serving reasons, and approve of a special counsel being appointed to investigate Russian government efforts to influence the election and the Trump campaign. In addition, a majority opposes the Republican plan to replace […] Read more »

Hillary Clinton’s ’email’ problem was bigger than anyone realized

Hillary Clinton’s ongoing struggle to deal with the revelation that she used a private email server during her time as secretary of state dominated the conversation about her presidential candidacy, and research suggests it might have doomed her campaign, according to a new study by a consortium of pollsters released […] Read more »

Predicting 2016 State Presidential Election Results with a National Tracking Poll and MRP

Donald Trump’s widely unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election has raised questions about the accuracy of public opinion polling, the aggregation of polling into probabilistic election forecasts and the interpretation of election polling by data analysts, journalists and the general public. While national-level polls on average proved as […] Read more »

Cultural Displacement—Not Economic Hardship—More Predictive of White Working-Class Support for Trump

White working-class voters who reported feelings of cultural dislocation or favored deportation of illegal immigrants were more than three times more likely to support Trump, according to new analysis of a fall PRRI/The Atlantic survey released today. The influence of economic factors is both less powerful and more complex. CONT. […] Read more »

A 2016 Review: There’s Reason to Be Skeptical of a Comey Effect

On Friday, Oct. 28, James B. Comey, the F.B.I. director, sent a letter to Congress about new evidence in the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. Politicians, analysts and journalists are still debating whether the letter cost Mrs. Clinton the presidency. It’s certainly possible. But I am not at all sure, […] Read more »

Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.

Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to […] Read more »