Was the 2016 election actually a political realignment?

Did 2016 represent a realignment? That’s certainly an overused and somewhat taboo word these days. But to listen to media coverage today, you might get the impression that 2016 was a substantial break from voting patterns of the past. I’d like to explore this question a bit here and bring […] Read more »

Sexism in 2016

With the publication of Hillary Clinton’s campaign memoir, and the Harvey Weinstein scandal raging, it’s propitious to examine the much debated role of sexism in the last election. … In our pre-election survey, one of the biggest differentiators between Trump and Clinton voters came in their responses to the word […] Read more »

Nothing Divides Voters Like Owning a Gun

Americans are deeply split along demographic lines, but there aren’t many demographic characteristics that embody America’s cultural divide better than gun ownership. In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas on Sunday, the polling firm SurveyMonkey published a pair of maps from its 2016 presidential election exit polls. […] Read more »

In sicker communities, Trump got more votes. Is that why he won?

The worse a community’s health the more strongly its voters backed Donald Trump in the 2016 election compared to their support for Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, researchers reported on Monday. The findings suggest that public health “might influence” how people vote, said Dr. Jason Wasfy of Massachusetts […] Read more »

Did the Clinton campaign really stop polling at the end?

An explosive allegation from prominent Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg last week is sparking a new wave of criticism and recriminations about Hillary Clinton’s campaign. The charge — that the campaign went the final three weeks of last year’s presidential election without polling the battleground states — amounts to an accusation […] Read more »

How She Lost

Hillary Clinton’s tragic 2016 campaign faced withering criticism in the press, social media, and now, in Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes’s inside account, Shattered. From my vantage point as lead pollster for the Democratic nominees in 1992 and 2000, part of the closing clutch of pollsters in 2004, and invited […] Read more »