A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn’t the Driver of Clinton’s Defeat

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout. Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected. To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was […] Read more »

Democrats burned by polling blind spot

As they investigate the forces behind the party’s stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn’t just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well. Many pollsters and strategists believe that […] Read more »

Another Look Back at 2016: Comparing the exit poll and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study

On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative […] Read more »

Donald Trump’s Political Stew

… The 2016 election and its aftermath have produced turmoil on the right while once again forcing into public view worrisome long-term trends in the Democratic electorate. … One of the mainstays of Democratic optimism is the conviction that a growing body of young voters — more liberal than their […] Read more »

Study: Breitbart-led right-wing media ecosystem altered broader media agenda

… Our own study of over 1.25 million stories published online between April 1, 2015 and Election Day shows that a right-wing media network anchored around Breitbart developed as a distinct and insulated media system, using social media as a backbone to transmit a hyper-partisan perspective to the world. This […] Read more »

Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party?

Facing a bleak electoral landscape after 2016, the brightest spot for Democrats may be President Trump’s continued weakness with members of the Millennial generation—who are poised to surpass the more Republican-leaning baby boomers in 2020 as the largest generation of eligible voters. Polls early in his presidency consistently show Trump […] Read more »

How the Internet Threatens Democracy

As the forces of reaction outpace movements predicated on the ideal of progress, and as traditional norms of political competition are tossed aside, it’s clear that the internet and social media have succeeded in doing what many feared and some hoped they would. They have disrupted and destroyed institutional constraints […] Read more »

Ordering Vindaloo or Hunting for Venison? How You Vote

… As a political scientist, I’ve been asking people about their experiences with people who are different from them. In 2008, I wrote a series of questions to measure cosmopolitanism. I asked seven questions about travel, sports and food to tap into behaviors that expose people to varying levels of […] Read more »