Explaining Trump

… Although a substantial answer will not emerge for years, this post is my own morning-after answer to the “WTHH?” question. I make three arguments: First, Trump’s electoral college victory was a fluke, a small accident with vast implications, but from a social science perspective not very interesting. Second, the […] Read more »

Trump’s Pre-Inauguration Favorables Remain Historically Low

President-elect Donald Trump approaches Inauguration Day with a significantly lower favorable rating than his three immediate predecessors received when they were presidents-elect. Trump’s 40% favorable rating is roughly half of what Barack Obama enjoyed before his inauguration in 2009 (78%) and is much lower than the pre-inaugural ratings for George […] Read more »

Donald Trump has brought us the American style in paranoid politics

Political scientists long assumed that U.S. institutions were more open and sturdier than those in other countries. One manifestation of that robustness, the theory went, was that U.S. politics appeared largely free from troubling symptoms like conspiracy thinking. Foreigners — particularly in less-developed countries — might attribute the actions of […] Read more »

The vast majority of these counties voted for Donald Trump — even if they had backed Democrats for years

A new analysis of labor data offers insight into why Donald Trump delivered surprise wins in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Yes, he swept the Rust Belt. But more specifically, he won over voters in counties that were most dependent on blue-collar work — including hordes of longtime Democratic voters. The […] Read more »

How America Changed During Barack Obama’s Presidency

Barack Obama campaigned for the U.S. presidency on a platform of change. As he prepares to leave office, the country he led for eight years is undeniably different. Profound social, demographic and technological changes have swept across the United States during Obama’s tenure, as have important shifts in government policy […] Read more »