Party Hoppers: Understanding Voters Who Switched Partisan Affiliation

Partisan affiliation is one of the most stable features of the modern American electorate. While individuals’ feelings toward politicians or their attitudes about policy can change quickly, partisanship is a deep-seated identity resistant to change. Within the last five years, however, we have observed a significant amount of partisan switching […] Read more »

Placing Priority: How Issues Mattered More than Demographics in the 2016 Election

Key Findings Viewing the electorate through the lens of issue priorities rather than through demographic variables yields valuable insights. Our analysis suggests that the mix of issue priorities revealed more about voter decision-making than demography. … The key issues driving the election, based on what voters found most important, were […] Read more »

Don’t blame the election on fake news. Blame it on the media.

SINCE THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, an increasingly familiar narrative has emerged concerning the unexpected victory of Donald Trump. Fake news, much of it produced by Russian sources, was amplified on social networks such as Facebook and Twitter, generating millions of views among a segment of the electorate eager to hear […] Read more »

As Washington debates taxes, some Republicans keep focus on partisan issues loved by their base

As his Monday night town hall meeting wrapped up, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) called on a veteran who had a question about benefits and praise for the congressman’s work. “I’d like to congratulate you and Rep. [Jim] Jordan on bringing the Clinton Foundation up for possible prosecution or investigation,” Dan […] Read more »

How the computer revolution is deepening America’s partisan divide

Add the computer and communications revolution to the list of fundamental changes that are widening the political divide between red and blue America. A revealing new Brookings Institution study shows that the thriving metropolitan areas at the vanguard of the transition to the highly digital, post-industrial economy flocked toward Hillary […] Read more »

Rural Wisconsin voters swung for Trump and change, but found frustration

It was just over a year ago that this rural battleground region swung hard for Donald Trump in a clamor for political change. But today that frustration with politics appears undiminished by his election and is aimed in all directions — including Trump’s. … What this swingy slice of the […] Read more »

The One County In America That Voted In A Landslide For Both Trump And Obama

In the year since President Trump pulled off his stunning upset of Hillary Clinton, Democrats have blamed the result on all kinds of factors: James Comey’s letter, Russian hackers, voter suppression, Jill Stein’s candidacy and depressed African-American turnout, to name a few. The truth? In an election decided by fractions […] Read more »

The Democratic Civil War Is Getting Nasty, Even if No One Is Paying Attention

… It can be difficult, if not impossible, in Washington these days to pay attention to the Democrats’ war within while what appears to be the full-fledged implosion of the Republican Party unfolds. … So perhaps it’s no surprise that the brewing fight over the Democratic Party’s future gets so […] Read more »

Voter Trends in 2016

The unprecedented and largely unanticipated election of Republican candidate Donald Trump as president of the United States in 2016 set off intense debates about how his victory was achieved and which factors mattered most in determining the outcome. … For this project, we developed original turnout and support estimates by […] Read more »