Forget Kansas. This chart shows why Republicans need to worry about 2018

Political Washington is in the midst of a heated debate over what — if anything — the somewhat-closer-than-expected special election in Kansas on Tuesday means for next November’s midterm elections. No matter where you come down on that question — I think there were clear warning signs for Republicans in […] Read more »

11 Things I Think I Think After the Kansas 4 Special Election

After a few months in the electoral desert, we finally have election results to digest from a competitive race, albeit an unexpected one. State Treasurer Ron Estes pulled out a 53-46 percent victory to keep the 4th District of Kansas in Republican hands. The 7-point margin is shocking considering Donald […] Read more »

California: Gavin Newsom remains early leader for governor

Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom continues to hold the early lead in statewide voter preferences for governor in 2018. Newsom is currently the choice of 28% of registered voters when paired against four other announced candidates — Republican businessman John Cox and three fellow Democrats, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, […] Read more »

Democrats burned by polling blind spot

As they investigate the forces behind the party’s stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn’t just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well. Many pollsters and strategists believe that […] Read more »

Off-Year Governors Races Look Challenging for GOP

Gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey will get plenty of attention this year, in part because of Donald Trump’s victory and the developing divisions in the two major parties. … The results are likely to be over-interpreted, as they usually are, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t offer […] Read more »