Inside the Alabama election, a lesson for the GOP in 2018

By most any political estimation, last week’s Alabama special Senate election was an outlier. Democrats generally don’t win statewide races in Alabama and Doug Jones likely wouldn’t have if a series of child molestation stories hadn’t surfaced about Republican candidate Roy Moore. But tallies out of Alabama’s biggest vote-producing counties […] Read more »

The Politics of Global Warming Beliefs

Seven in ten registered voters (72%) think global warming is happening. This includes nearly all liberal Democrats (97%; six percentage points higher than in our first survey in 2008), about nine in ten moderate/conservative Democrats (89%; eight points higher than in 2008), and a majority of liberal/moderate Republicans (63%). In […] Read more »

‘We Are in a Trump-Driven Worst-Case Situation Right Now’

Roy Moore was a uniquely flawed and vulnerable candidate. But what should worry Republicans most about his loss to Democrat Doug Jones in Tuesday’s Alabama Senate race was how closely the result tracked with the GOP’s big defeats last month in New Jersey and Virginia—not to mention how it followed […] Read more »

Presidential-Gubernatorial Race Splits and Party Voting in 2016

While down-ballot ticket races such as Senate and House elections have become increasingly nationalized–closely correlating with state presidential vote–gubernatorial elections have not followed this path as much. As Harry Enten detailed using 2012 presidential vote and 2014 gubernatorial vote totals, several states went for presidential and gubernatorial candidates of different […] Read more »

Historic turnout of young voters in Virginia election poses problem for Republicans

As bad as the overall outcome of Virginia’s recent election was for Republicans, there was one facet of the vote that raises special alarm for the party’s future. That’s the performance of young voters, who came out in historic numbers and overwhelmingly cast their ballots for the Democratic candidate for […] Read more »

Blast From the Past: The Current Political World Mirrors 2009

The party not occupying the White House seizes control of governor’s offices in New Jersey and Virginia. An unexpectedly competitive special Senate election threatens the chamber’s balance of power. Major legislation being forced through along partisan lines heads for a climactic holiday-season vote. Veteran lawmakers of the governing party race […] Read more »

If 2018 Is Like 2017, the House Will Be a Tossup

Assume, for the moment, that next year’s midterm elections go exactly like this year’s special and general elections. What would happen? The Democrats would post sweeping gains. They would win the House national popular vote, probably by a wide margin. But the battle for House control would be close. The […] Read more »