Sanders’s Practically Unprecedented Success

By steadily increasing his support in national polls to the point where it now essentially equals Hillary Clinton’s, Bernie Sanders has crossed a threshold that few other challengers to a heavily favored front-runner have ever reached. But those gains still leave him facing a steep uphill climb to overcome her […] Read more »

Can Anyone Beat Trump in the Primary? History Says No

Let’s say you’re a Republican who is looking with abject terror at the thought of a Donald Trump nomination. You look at poll numbers from upcoming states—Trump by six! Trump by eight! You read and hear about “vectors” and “glide paths”, and you start looking for reassurance that it’s still […] Read more »

Presidential job approval ratings from Ike to Obama

Perhaps no measure better captures the public’s sentiment toward the president than job approval. … We looked at Pew Research Center data going back to Bill Clinton, and Gallup data going back to Dwight Eisenhower. These ratings reflect, for example, how views of presidents have become more politically polarized, as […] Read more »

No Drama Obama

President Obama’s middling job approval rating has been quite steady over the last few months, devoid of much movement outside of the relatively subtle shifts seen from poll to poll. This is nothing new: Based on Gallup’s polling, Barack Obama’s approval rating has the smallest standard deviation of any modern […] Read more »

Why This Scandal Won’t Hurt Hillary

… The Hillary Clinton e-mail controversy is just the latest entrée in a decades-long, calorie-rich menu provided by the former first lady and her husband. But will it make a difference in 2016? Scandal allegations are almost always an enormously time-consuming distraction and they make it virtually impossible to communicate […] Read more »

The Worst President Since World War II?

Is Barack Obama really the worst president since World War II? The Quinnipiac Poll announced just that result result recently. There were thereafter a number of pushbacks from that conclusion, most based on the fact that such an open-end question reflects a “recency bias” in that Americans think about the […] Read more »

Is Obama the Worst Modern President? Take Two

Conservative pundits such as the Wall St. Journal’s Peggy Noonan continue to cite the recent Quinnipiac poll as evidence that Obama is perhaps the worst president to have served during the last seven decades. For reasons I discussed in my previous post, however, I think we need to resist jumping […] Read more »

Will Obama Ever Be Popular Again?

Barack Obama has had an unusual presidency, winning election twice with a majority of the vote, yet frequently saddled with a job approval rating below 50 percent. In fact, only during his “honeymoon” period in 2009 and around his reelection in 2012 has a majority of the population approved of […] Read more »