As recently as one month ago, Donald Trump was merely losing. Now he is flailing, trudging into the Independence Day weekend at the nadir of his presidency, trailing by double digits in recent polls and in danger of dragging the Republican Senate down with him. But there are still four […] Read more »
Why the Dukakis 1988 analogy is baloney
Most observers writing about President Donald Trump’s weak reelection standing note that George H.W. Bush was in a deeper hole yet managed to crawl out to win comfortably in 1988. They make the point that November is still months away, and things can change. But the 1988 case isn’t useful […] Read more »
The strong economy didn’t make Trump, but coronavirus collapse could break him
The last time an incumbent president lost reelection — George H.W. Bush, in 1992 — an “it’s the economy, stupid” campaign theme took him down. Unemployment then was hovering around 7.5%. In the calamitous spring of 2020, that sounds like a long-lost boomtime. The Labor Department last week reported unemployment […] Read more »
Can This President Be Reelected In An Economy This Bad?
As April began and Americans were being told to fear COVID-19 and stay home, President Trump said there would not need to be a “massive recession.” As recently as Monday, he said the economy would have “a tremendous third quarter.” By Wednesday, he was looking forward to “a fourth quarter […] Read more »
Reputations of leaders in crises
Leaders frequently forge their reputations in crises. In normal times, competition for the public’s attention is fierce. Crises, by contrast, put leaders at the center of our focus. Almost every eye is firmly fixed on them. … In the midst of World War II, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s approval […] Read more »
America was unprepared for a major crisis. Again.
President Trump downplayed the coronavirus threat, was slow to move and has delivered mixed messages to the nation. The federal bureaucracy bungled rapid production of tests for the virus. Stockpiles of crucial medical materials were limited and supply lines cumbersome. States and hospitals were plunged into life-and-death competition with one […] Read more »