The Ross Perot Myth

George H.W. Bush only lost his re-election bid in 1992 because a peculiar independent candidate from Texas, Ross Perot, drew more voters away from Bush than from Democratic candidate Bill Clinton. It’s one of the most enduring myths in U.S. presidential election history. CONT. FiveThirtyEight See also: Vengeful billionaire sinks President’s […] Read more »

Trump Seen as Less Conservative Than Prior GOP Candidates

Donald Trump’s political views, in the eyes of U.S. registered voters, are the least conservative of GOP presidential candidates in recent history. About six in 10 registered voters have viewed recent Republican nominees as conservative or very conservative, with George W. Bush’s 68% in 2004 the highest. CONT. Justin McCarthy, […] Read more »

Americans Really Dislike Trump, Clinton. So Why Aren’t Third Parties Doing Better?

So many things about this election are unprecedented — and one of the most obvious is how much voters dislike the candidates. By now, everyone knows that this year features the two most unpopular presumptive major-party candidates on record. But in some ways, Americans’ dislike of the presidential candidates isn’t […] Read more »

2016 Hillary vs. 1992 Bill: How does their polling compare?

As Bill Clinton navigated his way around table corners and selfie-snapping voters at a café in New Mexico this week, he ran into a reporter who asked a question being pondered by pundits: How can Hillary Clinton boost her general election poll numbers against Donald Trump — who already appears […] Read more »

Presidential job approval ratings from Ike to Obama

Perhaps no measure better captures the public’s sentiment toward the president than job approval. … We looked at Pew Research Center data going back to Bill Clinton, and Gallup data going back to Dwight Eisenhower. These ratings reflect, for example, how views of presidents have become more politically polarized, as […] Read more »

No Drama Obama

President Obama’s middling job approval rating has been quite steady over the last few months, devoid of much movement outside of the relatively subtle shifts seen from poll to poll. This is nothing new: Based on Gallup’s polling, Barack Obama’s approval rating has the smallest standard deviation of any modern […] Read more »

Is Hillary Clinton Really in Danger of Losing the Primary?

Bernie Sanders is said to be surging, Joe Biden is considering jumping in the race, and Hillary Rodham Clinton’s unfavorable ratings are the worst they’ve been in her 23-plus years in national politics — lower than they were in 2007 or 2008. Whether you call it wishful thinking or a […] Read more »

Why This Scandal Won’t Hurt Hillary

… The Hillary Clinton e-mail controversy is just the latest entrée in a decades-long, calorie-rich menu provided by the former first lady and her husband. But will it make a difference in 2016? Scandal allegations are almost always an enormously time-consuming distraction and they make it virtually impossible to communicate […] Read more »

For Presidents Day, a look at presidential job approval ratings from Ike to Obama

Perhaps no measure better captures the public’s sentiment toward the president than job approval. It dates back to the earliest days of public opinion polling, when George Gallup asked about Franklin D. Roosevelt starting in the 1930s: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way ____ is handling his job […] Read more »

How the Great Wage Slowdown Hurts Democrats

It’s a simple rule: A weak economy makes for an unpopular president. President Obama is on course to become the fourth president of the last six to leave office with an approval rating well below 50 percent. Each of the previous three — both Bushes and Jimmy Carter — also […] Read more »