Democrats have basic fact problem

We ran a new PredictWise/Pollfish Poll on facts about politics on January 26, 2017 and found that Republican talking points are much more salient than Democratic talking points. This is not a story about partisan asymmetry around what people believe (although that exists), but about how Democrats also believe key […] Read more »

‘Repeal and Replace’: Words Still Hanging Over G.O.P.’s Health Care Strategy

In March 2010, on the day before President Obama was to sign the Affordable Care Act into law, a group of senior Republican aides huddled in Senator Mitch McConnell’s Capitol suite to try to come up with a catchy slogan to use against it. Many conservatives were simply advocating a […] Read more »

Who Can Tell the Future of the Democratic Party?

Here’s a question very few people expected to be asking this year: Does the Democratic Party have a future? The defeat of Hillary Clinton has revived with new intensity the conflict between proponents of identity politics — focusing electoral attention on African-Americans, Hispanics, women and the L.G.B.T. community — and […] Read more »

Democrats angry that Clinton had no economic message

… Celinda Lake, the renowned Democratic pollster, is very angry that her party failed to lay out an economic vision to contrast with Trump’s. During an afternoon symposium at Gallup’s headquarters in downtown Washington yesterday, where dozens of experts on public opinion gathered to discuss the lessons of the election, […] Read more »

Why Do Debate ‘Expectations’ Matter?

… The role of expectations in framing press evaluations of presidential debates is sufficiently familiar that we are now regularly subjected to meta-analyses of the “expectations game” in which members of the media evaluate how well the campaigns are manipulating the media. Less commonly discussed, however, is why this practice […] Read more »

Pessimism Might Not Be a Winning Bet for Republicans

A political lifetime ago, Ronald Reagan’s pollster seized on this question to frame the campaign’s argument during his 1980 presidential campaign: “Is the country headed in the right direction, or is it on the wrong track?” … In the New York Times-CBS News poll for July, 26 percent of respondents […] Read more »