The Voters Abandoning Donald Trump

A massive new source of public-opinion research offers fresh insights into the fault lines emerging in Donald Trump’s foundation of support. Previously unpublished results from the nonpartisan online-polling firm SurveyMonkey show Trump losing ground over his tumultuous first year not only with the younger voters and white-collar whites who have […] Read more »

Explaining Trump Some More

It’s over a year now, but academics, journalists, and political junkies still cannot get their fill–nor can I–of addressing the question, Why Trump? … Studies have accumulated showing that the distinctiveness of Trump’s core supporters in the primaries and among new or swing voters in the general election lies less […] Read more »

Is it possible that white evangelicals swung the Alabama election against Roy Moore?

The network exit poll finds 80 percent of white evangelical or born-again Christians supported Roy Moore, 10 points lower than the share of this group that backed Mitt Romney in 2012. The shift is statistically significant and would have been enough to overcome Jones’s 1.5 percentage-point victory margin. CONT. Scott […] Read more »

‘A spiritual battle:’ How Roy Moore tested white evangelical allegiance to the Republican Party

Roy Moore’s failed run for Alabama’s Senate seat tested white evangelicals’ allegiance to the Republican Party. Would they vote for a candidate who shares their conservative views on social issues even though he was accused of sexual misconduct by multiple women? Exit polls suggest they did just that, with 80 […] Read more »

‘We Are in a Trump-Driven Worst-Case Situation Right Now’

Roy Moore was a uniquely flawed and vulnerable candidate. But what should worry Republicans most about his loss to Democrat Doug Jones in Tuesday’s Alabama Senate race was how closely the result tracked with the GOP’s big defeats last month in New Jersey and Virginia—not to mention how it followed […] Read more »

Doug Jones wins Alabama — Fox News voter analysis summary

Doug Jones became the first Democratic Senator from Alabama in two decades in a stunning result that brings the Republican majority down to just a single seat. Jones’s victory marked the end of a highly unusual special election to fill the seat vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Jones carried […] Read more »

Alabama’s women wrote the verdict on Roy Moore

Women drew the line at Roy Moore. There are many reasons why Moore became the first Republican nominee to lose an Alabama Senate race since 1992 on Tuesday night, including a strong turnout by African-American voters and a lack of enthusiasm among Moore’s base. But with Moore denying multiple allegations […] Read more »

Key Takeaways From Doug Jones’s Alabama Victory

Doug Jones’s defeat of Roy S. Moore in Tuesday’s bitterly fought special Senate election was one of the most unlikely upsets in recent campaign history. But the Democrats’ victory in Alabama carries some more immediate political implications. A Suburban Shellacking Voters in Alabama’s cities and most affluent suburbs overwhelmingly rejected […] Read more »

Exit polls: How Doug Jones pulled off his stunning win

Doug Jones needed a surge of black voter turnout and a wide gender gap to pull off his stunning victory over embattled Republican Roy Moore in Tuesday’s special Senate election. In becoming the first Democrat to win a statewide federal election in Alabama since 1992, Jones proved that Democratic fears […] Read more »

Allegations, Democratic surge doomed Roy Moore, exit poll shows

In the end, a combination of two different storylines doomed Republican Roy Moore in Alabama’s Senate race, according to the exit poll of the contest. The first revolved around the multiple allegations of sexual misconduct against Moore, with one woman charging him with initiating a sexual encounter with her when […] Read more »