Another Look Back at 2016: Comparing the exit poll and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study

On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative […] Read more »

Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party?

Facing a bleak electoral landscape after 2016, the brightest spot for Democrats may be President Trump’s continued weakness with members of the Millennial generation—who are poised to surpass the more Republican-leaning baby boomers in 2020 as the largest generation of eligible voters. Polls early in his presidency consistently show Trump […] Read more »

How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the basic differences and similarities between the electorates in presidential and midterm cycles. Basically, midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse than presidential ones, but the demographic […] Read more »

The Democratic Party is facing a demographic crisis

Musa al-Gharbi, Columbia University In 2008, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama outperformed his predecessors John Kerry and Al Gore with virtually every single demographic group, handily defeating his Republican rival John McCain. This success spread to down-ballot races as well. Democrats expanded control over the House and the Senate, and […] Read more »

Obama pollster Cornell Belcher on the failures that led to President Trump

The Democratic Party is continuing its postmortem after Hillary Clinton’s unexpected defeat. Many challenges and puzzles will need to be resolved. … Some have suggested that Democrats should abandon “identity politics” and focus exclusively on winning back white working-class voters. While Barack Obama won two terms — and left office […] Read more »

Why is immigration such a problem for the Democratic Party?

… For the past fifty years, the Democratic Party has been the moving force behind rights movements generally, including, prominently, immigrant rights. Over that same time period, the Republican Party has been, and still is, the political arm of those opposed to the expansion of civil rights. This division has […] Read more »