The Democratic Party Is in Worse Shape Than You Thought

Sifting through the wreckage of the 2016 election, Democratic pollsters, strategists and sympathetic academics have reached some unnerving conclusions. What the autopsy reveals is that Democratic losses among working class voters were not limited to whites; that crucial constituencies within the party see its leaders as alien; and that unity […] Read more »

It’s time to bust the myth: Most Trump voters were not working class.

Media coverage of the 2016 election often emphasized Donald Trump’s appeal to the working class. The Atlantic said that “the billionaire developer is building a blue-collar foundation.” The Associated Press wondered what “Trump’s success in attracting white, working-class voters” would mean for his general election strategy. On Nov. 9, the […] Read more »

AALDEF Report: The Asian American Vote in 2016

Today, the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) released a new report with detailed findings from its nonpartisan multilingual exit poll of 13,846 Asian American voters in the November 2016 elections. The exit poll found that the overwhelming majority of Asian Americans backed Democratic candidates for President and […] Read more »

Trump Lost More Of The Asian-American Vote Than The National Exit Polls Showed

By all accounts, President Trump did not win the Asian-American vote in 2016. But the size of Hillary Clinton’s margin of victory with voters in the fastest-growing racial group in the U.S. depends upon which exit poll you rely. The National Exit Poll, funded by the major national media organizations, […] Read more »

A 2016 Review: Turnout Wasn’t the Driver of Clinton’s Defeat

In the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election, many analysts suggested that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald J. Trump because of poor Democratic turnout. Months later, it is clear that the turnout was only modestly better for Mr. Trump than expected. To the extent Democratic turnout was weak, it was […] Read more »

Another Look Back at 2016: Comparing the exit poll and the Cooperative Congressional Election Study

On election night in November, exit polls provided the first insight into how different demographic groups voted. But months later, other richer data sets are being released, and they provide researchers with new information about the election and the voters that participated in it. One such tool is the Cooperative […] Read more »

Can Millennials Save the Democratic Party?

Facing a bleak electoral landscape after 2016, the brightest spot for Democrats may be President Trump’s continued weakness with members of the Millennial generation—who are poised to surpass the more Republican-leaning baby boomers in 2020 as the largest generation of eligible voters. Polls early in his presidency consistently show Trump […] Read more »

How Midterms Do (and Do Not) Differ From Presidential Elections

With politicos everywhere turning their eyes to the still-distant 2018 midterm election, we thought it would be useful to review some of the basic differences and similarities between the electorates in presidential and midterm cycles. Basically, midterm electorates are smaller, older, and less diverse than presidential ones, but the demographic […] Read more »