The Census and Right-Wing Hysteria

Several years ago, the Census Bureau began to predict that the United States would become a majority-minority nation by the 2040s — that African- and Asian-Americans, as well as Latinos, would outnumber non-Hispanic whites. Last year the census underlined its prediction by announcing that non-Hispanic white babies under the age […] Read more »

Why did Trump win? More whites — and fewer blacks — actually voted.

Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.” Here, we offer new data to […] Read more »

The Collapse of American Identity

After the British writer G. K. Chesterton visited the United States for the first time, he remarked that America was “a nation with the soul of a church.” Mr. Chesterton wasn’t referring to the nation’s religiosity but to its formation around a set of core political beliefs enshrined in founding […] Read more »

Democrats argue way back to power is through small towns won by Trump

… Throughout the last decade, Democrats pursued what was considered to be the most efficient strategy of winning in presidential and Senate contests — turning to technocrats who knew how to find their most loyal voters in cities and suburbs and drive up turnout from their base. It helped Barack […] Read more »

Democrats burned by polling blind spot

As they investigate the forces behind the party’s stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn’t just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well. Many pollsters and strategists believe that […] Read more »