America, a year later: The divided era of politics didn’t start with Trump’s victory. But it has gotten worse under his presidency.

One Election Night a year ago didn’t get us to this place. Long before Donald Trump upset Hillary Clinton for the presidency last year, the nation was facing steadily rising social and political tensions rooted in diverging reactions to the relentless economic, demographic and cultural changes reshaping American life. But […] Read more »

Voter Trends in 2016

The unprecedented and largely unanticipated election of Republican candidate Donald Trump as president of the United States in 2016 set off intense debates about how his victory was achieved and which factors mattered most in determining the outcome. … For this project, we developed original turnout and support estimates by […] Read more »

This is the new ‘giant sucking sound’ you hear. It’s changing the economy and disrupting politics

To understand two of the most volatile currents in modern politics, the best place to start is with a fundamental shift in the geography of economic opportunity. Reversing the pervasive urban decline of 20th century’s final decades, opportunity is once again flowing into the urban cores of the nation’s largest […] Read more »

California Is the Future

America is stuck between two historical eras. That’s the best way to understand the strange, unprecedented politics of Trump, the political polarization and paralysis of government, the deep dissatisfaction of public opinion, the lack of trust in all institutions — all of it. The post-Industrial era that blossomed in the second half […] Read more »

Nothing Divides Voters Like Owning a Gun

Americans are deeply split along demographic lines, but there aren’t many demographic characteristics that embody America’s cultural divide better than gun ownership. In the wake of the mass shooting in Las Vegas on Sunday, the polling firm SurveyMonkey published a pair of maps from its 2016 presidential election exit polls. […] Read more »

The NFL, Charlottesville, and Trump’s pattern of racial division

… From the first day of Trump’s presidential campaign in 2015 — when he denounced Mexican immigrants as “rapists” and “criminals” — Trump has targeted the groups in the electorate who polls show feel the most threatened by demographic, cultural and economic change, particularly older, blue collar, evangelical and non-urban […] Read more »

Fading white evangelicals have made a desperate end-of-life bargain with Trump

One of the biggest mysteries of Donald Trump’s presidency has been white evangelicals’ steadfast and enthusiastic support for him. … The key to understanding the puzzling white evangelical/Trump alliance is grasping the large-scale changes — most prominently the declining numbers of white Christians in the country — that have transformed […] Read more »