Partisan Identification Is ‘Sticky,’ but About 10% Switched Parties Over the Past Year

Those who study politics have long known that a person’s party affiliation is a strong predictor of how they will vote and what their opinions will be on most political issues. Some of the power of partisanship comes from its relative immutability: Most people remain loyal to a political party. […] Read more »

Lessons for Trump Detractors From a Loyalty Expert

You’ve probably never heard of James Kane, but elected officials, party strategists, and even some reporters could learn from his perspective as a behavioral scientist (instead of a partisan hack) about how to fracture President Donald Trump’s base and the future of the two parties. … According to Kane, people […] Read more »

Leveraging the Health Care Debate to Build a Political Tidal Wave

… Taking their marching orders from Donald Trump, last week Republicans in the House voted to dismantle the American health care system and undo crucial progress in helping ordinary Americans have access to life-saving and affordable treatments. And in the words of billionaire investor Warren Buffet, they did it just […] Read more »

What Democrats’ Losses in 2010 Can Tell Us About G.O.P.’s Chances in 2018

There’s no way to know how the health care debate in Congress will play out, but there’s a lot of reason to think that the House vote to replace the Affordable Care Act has put Republicans on a risky path heading into next year’s midterm elections. CONT. Nate Cohn, New […] Read more »

Can the Democrats Convince Millennials to Vote in 2018?

President Trump’s historically low approval ratings provide Democrats legitimate reasons for optimism about their prospects in the 2018 elections, especially in the House. But that confidence rests on a contradiction: Minorities and Millennials, the groups most alienated from Trump, are traditionally the constituencies least likely to vote in midterm elections. […] Read more »