Nearing 100 days, Trump’s approval at record lows but his base is holding

President Trump nears the 100-day mark of his administration as the least popular chief executive in modern times, a president whose voters remain largely satisfied with his performance, but one whose base of support has not expanded since he took the oath of office, according to a new Washington Post-ABC […] Read more »

President Trump at 100 Days: No honeymoon, but no regrets

There’s no honeymoon for Donald Trump in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, but also no regrets: He approaches his 100th day in office with the lowest approval rating at this point of any president in polls since 1945 –- yet 96 percent of those who supported him in November […] Read more »

Trump Probably Won’t Defy Midterm Gravity

The midterms will probably be rough for Donald Trump and Republicans next year. Here’s the main reason we know that: They’re almost always rough on the president’s party. It’s one of the most consistent regularities in American politics. Usually it’s a question of whether the damage is pretty bad, really […] Read more »

AALDEF Report: The Asian American Vote in 2016

Today, the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) released a new report with detailed findings from its nonpartisan multilingual exit poll of 13,846 Asian American voters in the November 2016 elections. The exit poll found that the overwhelming majority of Asian Americans backed Democratic candidates for President and […] Read more »

Public Dissatisfaction With Washington Weighs on the GOP

Nearly three months after the Republican Party took control of the White House and Congress, the public gives low job ratings to the president and even lower ratings to the speaker of the House. … On issues, the Republicans hold their traditional advantage on terrorism, and the two parties continue […] Read more »

Donald Trump’s election flips both parties’ views of the economy

Having Donald Trump in the White House has had a revolutionary effect on the economic outlook of Wisconsin’s most partisan voters, recent polling suggests. In a flash, it has turned Republicans into rosy optimists and Democrats into dour pessimists, reversing the mood of voters in both parties. You probably didn’t […] Read more »

Special elections and the Trump Vote

Special elections for the Kansas 4th and Georgia 6th Congressional districts have drawn tremendous attention as harbingers of Republican and Democratic fortunes under President Trump. … A fundamental problem with focusing on these congressional seats is their small numbers which makes comparison and generalization to other districts difficult. We address […] Read more »

Focus groups find early breakthrough moment in off-years

America has been roiled by the election of Donald Trump and total Republican control of the federal government. Will it be roiled again by a wave election in the coming off-year elections? That would require engaged and consolidated anti-Trump voters, demoralized Trump supporters and independent voters reacting against Trump and […] Read more »

Reaching Out to the Voters the Left Left Behind

The devastating recession that began at the end of 2007 and officially ended in June 2009 was the most severe downturn since World War II. The political, social and even medical consequences of this recession have been duly noted, but even so the depths of its effects are only now […] Read more »

Forget Kansas. This chart shows why Republicans need to worry about 2018

Political Washington is in the midst of a heated debate over what — if anything — the somewhat-closer-than-expected special election in Kansas on Tuesday means for next November’s midterm elections. No matter where you come down on that question — I think there were clear warning signs for Republicans in […] Read more »