Places with the fewest immigrants push back hardest against immigration

As President Donald Trump’s trip to Arizona is certain to demonstrate, immigration remains one of the most polarizing issues in American politics. But the central political fault line around the dispute follows a surprising path. The paradox of this emotional debate is that generally the states and communities with the […] Read more »

Democrats Need a Message, Not a Program

Democrats are in terrible shape. Republicans control all three branches of government in Washington, 34 of 50 governorships, and 68 of the 99 state legislatures. As they plot a comeback, Democrats have one obvious asset: the reckless presidency of Donald Trump. That’s not enough to close such a huge gap. […] Read more »

Will the 2018 Midterms Follow Historic Patterns?

In political handicapping you often have to reconcile a conflict between macro and micro dynamics. The macro, or big-picture factors, focus on the sitting president, with his popularity highly relevant to the election outcome. The micro factors include seats and incumbents that are up for election, local political circumstances, and […] Read more »

Failure of Senate ACA replacement bill related to huge divisions among Republicans and between parties

A new in-depth analysis of results from 27 national public opinion polls by 12 survey organizations finds that the failure of the recent U.S. Senate debate over proposals to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) relates to deep divisions among Republicans, as well as between Republicans and Democrats, […] Read more »

Democrats Have Their Own Challenges In Talking About Racial Issues In The Trump Era

… What if Trump’s victory — carrying more than 200 counties where former President Barack Obama had won in 2008 and 2012 — was not primarily driven by his populist economic appeals, but by his rhetoric and policies around race and identity issues instead? Trump’s denunciations of Black Lives Matter, […] Read more »

The Obama-Trump Voters Are Real. Here’s What They Think.

The story of the 2016 presidential election is simple. Donald J. Trump made huge gains among white voters without a college degree. His gains were large enough to cancel out considerable losses among well-educated white voters and a decade of demographic shifts. There are questions and details still up for […] Read more »

Charlottesville And The Rise Of White Identity Politics

There is nothing new about white supremacist groups in the U.S., or anti-Semitism, or people who defend the symbols of the Confederacy. (The “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, was to protest the planned removal of a statue of Confederate General Robert E. Lee.) From Richard Nixon’s “law and […] Read more »

The Normal Rules Of Politics Still Apply To Trump — And To Republicans In Congress

One of the big questions heading into the 2018 midterm elections — maybe the biggest — is how President Trump’s unpopularity will affect Republican fortunes. Normally, a president with historically low approval ratings would be a disaster for his party in Senate and House races in a midterm year. But […] Read more »