Who Can Tell the Future of the Democratic Party?

Here’s a question very few people expected to be asking this year: Does the Democratic Party have a future? The defeat of Hillary Clinton has revived with new intensity the conflict between proponents of identity politics — focusing electoral attention on African-Americans, Hispanics, women and the L.G.B.T. community — and […] Read more »

The Clintons were undone by the middle-American voters they once knew so well

Few Americans knew the voters who rejected Hillary Clinton better than her husband. He lived among them growing up, and then studied them with a fanatical intensity during his political rise. But now, with any notion of a dynasty dead and gone, one explanation for the stunning political demise of […] Read more »

The Ross Perot Myth

George H.W. Bush only lost his re-election bid in 1992 because a peculiar independent candidate from Texas, Ross Perot, drew more voters away from Bush than from Democratic candidate Bill Clinton. It’s one of the most enduring myths in U.S. presidential election history. CONT. FiveThirtyEight See also: Vengeful billionaire sinks President’s […] Read more »

Trump Seen as Less Conservative Than Prior GOP Candidates

Donald Trump’s political views, in the eyes of U.S. registered voters, are the least conservative of GOP presidential candidates in recent history. About six in 10 registered voters have viewed recent Republican nominees as conservative or very conservative, with George W. Bush’s 68% in 2004 the highest. CONT. Justin McCarthy, […] Read more »

Popular Presidents Factor Little in Non-Incumbent Elections

The Ronald Reagan presidency offers the most recent historical clues as to whether President Barack Obama’s popularity could affect voters’ choices for president in November. Like Obama, Reagan was earning job approval ratings in the low to mid-50s in the second half of his eighth year. And the Republican nominee […] Read more »