Hillary Clinton currently has a 71 percent chance of winning the presidency, according to The Upshot’s forecasting model. This is down from 90 percent last month, but higher than some other models we’re tracking, which put the odds between 58 percent and 85 percent. Part of the discrepancy comes from […] Read more »
Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania
With her polling lead slipping, Hillary Clinton still has Pennsylvania as a firewall — for now. David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who runs PredictWise, an online forecasting model that relies on betting markets, explained the primacy of Pennsylvania for Mrs. Clinton’s election chances during an interview this week. […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Keeps Shrinking
… The clearest pattern is simply that Trump has regained ground since Clinton’s post-convention peak. He now has a 31 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model, and a 33 percent chance according to polls-plus. For a deeper look, let’s run through our set of 10 […] Read more »
Imagine if campaign polls didn’t exist? Why would you?
“Imagine polls don’t exist. Show me evidence Hillary is winning?” That was the challenge that Charlotte radio host Bill Mitchell posed for his Twitter followers just one week ago. It was an interesting request, given that polls have been used to predict elections with relatively strong reliability for almost a […] Read more »
Do not confuse voter intention and probability of victory
On Tuesday the Monkey Cage at the Washington Post published an article, “Do betting markets outperform election polls? Hardly.” The article suffers from two common confusions around both prediction markets and forecasting in general. CONT. David Rothschild (Microsoft Research), PredictWise Read more »
Do betting markets outperform election polls? Hardly.
Can we trust the polls? That’s a real question these days. Pollsters have been trying — and not always successfully — to adapt their methodologies to keep up with cultural and technological change. … Some in the prediction business have wondered if we’re moving toward a “post-polling world.” Would prediction […] Read more »