Which election forecast was the most accurate? Or rather: The least wrong?

Few political observers saw Trump winning the presidential election. Afterward, some election forecasters ate crow. One actually ate a bug. But despite the inevitable lamentations — and recriminations — about election forecasts, there has been little rigorous evaluation of their performance. So we did one. CONT. Pavel Atanasov & Regina […] Read more »

Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania

With her polling lead slipping, Hillary Clinton still has Pennsylvania as a firewall — for now. David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who runs PredictWise, an online forecasting model that relies on betting markets, explained the primacy of Pennsylvania for Mrs. Clinton’s election chances during an interview this week. […] Read more »