Democrats Draw Vivid Lesson From Alabama: Mobilize Black Voters

Amid the Democrats’ celebration over their success in turning out a huge number of black voters in the Senate election in Alabama, party leaders, activists and operatives are seeing a vivid message to increase outreach, mobilization and investment in minority communities. … About 30 percent of the electorate in the […] Read more »

The Politics of #HimToo

The issue of sexual misconduct has emerged as a centerpiece of Democratic strategy for taking on President Trump and the Republican Party. That strategy paid off on Tuesday with the defeat of Roy Moore. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand’s decision to bring to center stage charges of sexual harassment leveled by more […] Read more »

Democrats see road map for 2018 in huge turnout among black voters in Alabama

… The Alabama race, like last month’s elections in Virginia, saw Democrats outperform expectations and polling thanks to a surge of nonwhite voters. A year that began with hand-wringing over President Trump’s victory ended with routs and upsets powered by the party’s most loyal supporters. Democrats in Alabama and elsewhere […] Read more »

Special Election Recap: Alabama Shakes (Up the Senate)

Here are a few things we learned from the dramatic victory of Doug Jones over Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate special election last night: 1. Special election results are often over-interpreted as political harbingers, and this particular election would no doubt have turned out much differently if Republicans hadn’t […] Read more »

Special Elections So Far Point To A Democratic Wave In 2018

Democrat Doug Jones’s stunning victory in Alabama on Tuesday should send a shiver down the spine of GOP elected officials everywhere. Yes, Jones likely would have lost the special election for a U.S. Senate seat had his Republican opponent, Roy Moore, not been an extremely flawed candidate. But Moore’s defeat […] Read more »

Alabama: How Jones Won

Democrat Doug Jones’ victory in yesterday’s special election surprised much of the political world, and it has created ripples that will be felt until Election Day in 2018. But, as is often the tendency with upsets, “pundits” were quick to hit cable news channels to make apocalyptic predications about what […] Read more »

Republicans Shouldn’t Assume Roy Moore Was An Outlier

I’ve been covering American elections at FiveThirtyEight for almost 10 years. During that time, by far the most remarkable outcomes — of course — were Barack Obama being elected president in 2008 and Donald Trump being elected in 2016. But in third and fourth place1 were two special elections to […] Read more »

Why Turnout Shifts in Alabama Bode Well for Democrats

Over the last eight years, political analysts had come to think that Democrats were at a distinct disadvantage in midterm elections, since their younger and nonwhite coalition was less likely to turn out than older and white voters. It is time to retire that notion. Tuesday in Alabama, Democrats benefited […] Read more »