Trump’s Pre-Inauguration Favorables Remain Historically Low

President-elect Donald Trump approaches Inauguration Day with a significantly lower favorable rating than his three immediate predecessors received when they were presidents-elect. Trump’s 40% favorable rating is roughly half of what Barack Obama enjoyed before his inauguration in 2009 (78%) and is much lower than the pre-inaugural ratings for George […] Read more »

In Sanders vs. Clinton, New Hampshire replays past splits

The political headlines out of New Hampshire this weekend bear an eerie resemblance to those of September 1999: an underdog senator overtaking a prohibitive front-runner in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination. In that case it was then-Sen. Bill Bradley surging ahead of then-Vice President Al Gore. Today it’s […] Read more »

Three Reasons to Be Skeptical of the Bernie Sanders Surge

Vermont Sen. and Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has had a good summer on the campaign trail. He’s drawing huge crowds at events across the country and a recent New Hampshire primary poll found him leading Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in the Granite State. But the numbers suggest there are […] Read more »

Is Hillary Clinton Really in Danger of Losing the Primary?

Bernie Sanders is said to be surging, Joe Biden is considering jumping in the race, and Hillary Rodham Clinton’s unfavorable ratings are the worst they’ve been in her 23-plus years in national politics — lower than they were in 2007 or 2008. Whether you call it wishful thinking or a […] Read more »

Clinton scandals may have defeated one presidential candidate. Could they do it again?

With Hillary Rodham Clinton’s questionable e-mail practices in the news, many people have asked whether it will matter for the 2016 election. And the most typical answer is that it won’t matter much, if at all. … Larry Sabato writes that if you examine presidential elections since 1900 “you’ll find […] Read more »

Clinton Favorability Among Dems Better Than Last Campaign

Hillary Clinton’s net favorability rating among Democrats — defined as the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage with an unfavorable opinion — is higher now than at a similar point leading up to the 2008 presidential election. Her net favorability is also similar to Al […] Read more »

The Simple Reason Why Republican Voters Aren’t Settling for Jeb Bush

On the right, the return of Mitt Romney—which I prefer to call the Romneyssiance—has sparked fresh new debates about why Jeb Bush was ever the great 2016 GOP hope. Why does he inspire such skepticism, from the right and the center-right, when his brother didn’t? … This discussion excises a […] Read more »