Could the California Democrats’ supermajority become their kryptonite?

Riding a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, Democrats in California were able to cobble together enough State Assembly and Senate seats to give them a two-thirds supermajority in both chambers. Their strengthened majorities have emboldened them to pursue a liberal agenda, but the latest polling data suggests they may be overreaching […] Read more »

How Much Can the Youth Vote Actually Help Democrats?

Young Americans have been moving left and leaving the G.O.P. in recent years, but a successful Democratic coalition built on the backs of liberal youth is far from a sure thing, especially in the short term. The party’s problem is straightforward: getting them to actually go to the polls. Politicians […] Read more »

Clues for a Wave? A Look at the Generic Ballots of 2006 & 2010

Given President Donald Trump’s controversial start, it’s no wonder friends and foes alike are already buzzing about his impact on the 2018 midterm elections. It’s still early in the cycle, but not too early to look at what various indicators say about the two parties’ prospects. Presidential job approval and […] Read more »

Democrats Must Take a Shot at Texas

When Democrats are desperate, they dream of Texas. … Texas is a large and utterly elusive grail. A 2016 simulation incorporating demographic and political trends in the state concluded that Texas would not fall into the Democratic column anytime in the next four presidential elections. “The juggernaut there is whites […] Read more »

Democrats Face Steep Climb to Win Back the Senate

It’s hard to ignore the storm clouds gathering for Republicans looking toward the 2018 elections. Midterms are typically referenda on the incumbent president and the party in power, and Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings are lower than those for any newly elected president. Worse still, a badly divided Republican Party holds […] Read more »