A Smarter Way to Interpret 2017’s Special Elections

The results of individual special elections, like Thursday’s in Montana between Democrat Rob Quist and Republican Greg Gianforte, can’t always foretell what will happen in the next high-stakes midterm. Each district presents its own unique set of variables, like flawed candidates or dreadfully unpopular governors. But taken collectively, the margins […] Read more »

Democrats Don’t Need Trump’s Voters To Retake The House

Stop me if you’ve seen a headline (or five) that proclaims something along the lines of: “Most Trump voters still support Trump.” Typically, the article includes quotes from Trump voters in Pennsylvania or Michigan. Sometimes it revolves around polling showing people don’t “regret” voting for Trump. The takeaway is usually: […] Read more »

Are Democrats headed toward a wave election?

Quinnipiac’s recent national poll made quite a splash when it reported a Democratic lead of 16 points on the generic Congressional ballot question. Indeed, conventional wisdom – as well as historical trends – suggests that Democrats, as the party opposite that of the new president and in the Congressional minority, […] Read more »

For Democrats, special elections may be preview of 2018 campaigns

Democrats are heading into the homestretch of three special elections over the next month amid a national frenzy over the investigation into the possible connections of President Trump’s 2016 campaign and Russian interference in the election. Yet in all three races, Democrats have made a tactical decision not to turn […] Read more »

Trump turmoil is spreading far beyond Washington to state and local races

As a cascade of controversies consumes the White House, anxiety is rising among Republicans well beyond the Beltway that President Trump’s troubles could take a severe toll on the party heading into next year’s midterm elections and beyond. With a near-daily string of new scandals and unfavorable headlines — including […] Read more »

California: Poll details how Orange County GOP House members may be vulnerable

Orange County’s independent voters heavily favor a Democrat Congress member in the county’s four Republican-held congressional districts, underlining the GOP’s vulnerability in these longtime strongholds, according to a poll released Friday. While the survey was done by a Democratic pollster, non-partisan political data expert Paul Mitchell said the methodology, questions […] Read more »