Handicapping The Georgia 6 Special Election

If the polls are right, then Democrat Jon Ossoff will receive by far the most votes in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, which is holding a special election to replace former U.S. Rep. Tom Price on Tuesday.1 But Ossoff will probably finish with less than 50 percent of the vote, which […] Read more »

Special elections and the Trump Vote

Special elections for the Kansas 4th and Georgia 6th Congressional districts have drawn tremendous attention as harbingers of Republican and Democratic fortunes under President Trump. … A fundamental problem with focusing on these congressional seats is their small numbers which makes comparison and generalization to other districts difficult. We address […] Read more »

Forget Kansas. This chart shows why Republicans need to worry about 2018

Political Washington is in the midst of a heated debate over what — if anything — the somewhat-closer-than-expected special election in Kansas on Tuesday means for next November’s midterm elections. No matter where you come down on that question — I think there were clear warning signs for Republicans in […] Read more »

Suburban G.O.P. Voters Sour on Party, Raising Republican Fears for 2018

A gray mood has settled over conservative-leaning voters in some of the country’s most reliably Republican congressional districts, as the party’s stumbles in Washington demoralize them and leave lawmakers scrambling to energize would-be supporters in a series of off-year elections. While the next nationwide elections are not until 2018, Republicans […] Read more »

11 Things I Think I Think After the Kansas 4 Special Election

After a few months in the electoral desert, we finally have election results to digest from a competitive race, albeit an unexpected one. State Treasurer Ron Estes pulled out a 53-46 percent victory to keep the 4th District of Kansas in Republican hands. The 7-point margin is shocking considering Donald […] Read more »

The Kansas Election and the Stability of American Electoral Politics

American politics over the last 25 years or so seems as if it’s a roller coaster of sudden and unpredictable plot twists, each more improbable than the last…. The fortunes of the two parties have appeared to reverse with whiplash-inducing rapidity multiple times over this period, with neither side managing […] Read more »