The other polls in the Virginia race

Tuesday was a great day for Ed Gillespie. Two new polls showed the Republican closing the gap for governor. Tuesday was a great day for Ralph Northam. One new poll showed the Democrat comfortably ahead for governor. … In the aggregate — that is, polling conducted since the parties settled […] Read more »

The first real electoral test of the Donald Trump era is on the horizon

For all of the attention to this year’s House of Representatives special elections, November’s gubernatorial races in New Jersey and especially Virginia will likely offer a more revealing measure of how Donald Trump’s presidency is reconfiguring the political landscape. … With his bristling nationalist message and repeated gestures toward white […] Read more »

Education Split in Alabama Primary Suggests Bumpy 2018 for GOP Senate

The impact of former judge Roy Moore’s landslide win in Alabama’s Republican Senate primary extends beyond that seat or this week’s tally of political “winners and losers.” A closer look at the election results suggests the fallout may extend into 2018 and a more fundamental remaking of the Senate GOP […] Read more »

2017 Special Elections Look Like a Wave

Pundits and campaign professionals have wrestled with whether 2018 will be a wave election or not, using metrics like President Trump’s job rating, candidate recruitment, fundraising and the four Congressional special elections in the last six months. A deeper more-local look at 2017 elections, though, show an already-building wave. Over […] Read more »

After Alabama, GOP anti-establishment wing declares all-out war in 2018

The stunning defeat of President Trump’s chosen Senate candidate in Alabama on Tuesday amounted to a political lightning strike — setting the stage for a worsening Republican civil war that could have profound effects on next year’s midterm elections and undermine Trump’s clout with his core voters. The GOP primary […] Read more »