How Trump Broke the Blue Wall

President-elect Donald Trump’s success at breaking the so-called “blue wall” – those Rust Belt states that had voted for a Democrat in every election since at least 1992 – was the key to his victory. To help understand how he did this, I compared exit poll data from the last […] Read more »

Learning from poll autopsies

As polls pour out of early primary states, it’s worth examining just how complex and fragile those instruments are. Recently we’ve been treated to three polling autopsies that illustrate potential pitfalls: two about Britain’s elections and one regarding our own 2014 midterms. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »

Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling

… As Facebook morphed into a ubiquitous social utility used by seventy-one percent of Americans and “popular across a diverse mix of demographic groups,” my colleague, Ed Erickson, and I speculated that Facebook data might very well provide a reliable measure of campaign effectiveness and enable the development of a […] Read more »

Voters Were Just As Diverse In 2014 As They Were In 2008

As the United States becomes more diverse, Republicans are supposedly going to suffer. Nothing encapsulated this theory more than President Obama’s 2008 election, powered by nonwhite voters — mainly Hispanics, black people and Asians. In politics, “demographics are destiny,” as the saying goes. But that’s not right, as I have […] Read more »

Latino Voters Key Factor in Success of Environmental Ballot Initiatives in 2014

A groundbreaking study released today finds evidence that Latinos’ stated concerns for the environment and protection of America’s public lands is demonstrated at the voting booth – and impacts policy. The new research brief, released by leading pollster Latino Decisions and the nonprofit Hispanic Access Foundation, analyzed the results of […] Read more »

2014: Right Turn on a Bumpy Road

Analysis of ABC News/Washington Post poll results on the 2014 midterm elections and a look ahead to 2016. Produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates and presented by Gary Langer at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, May 15, 2015, in Hollywood, Florida. Langer […] Read more »

What really happened in Maryland

For Democrats, election night 2014 offered a surfeit of unpleasant surprises. Perhaps most surprising of all was the outcome of Maryland’s gubernatorial race (disclosure: our firm was not involved). … The three public polls in October found Democrat Anthony Brown leading Republican Larry Hogan in the governor’s race by 7, […] Read more »

How Wrong Were 2014 Polls, Really?

An excerpt from The Surge: 2014’s Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election (Rowman & Littlefield): Democrats lost big in the 2014 elections, but in the aftermath, polling also took a hit for largely understating the size of Republicans’ win. While most polls and poll-based models […] Read more »