Wisconsin is a crucial state for the upcoming presidential election. Hillary Clinton lost the state in 2016 by about 27,000 votes. Along with losing Michigan (by about 12,000 votes) and Pennsylvania (by about 68,000 votes), those three states handed President Trump the electoral college victory. So, can Joe Biden do […] Read more »
To Beat Trump, Democrats May Need to Break Out of the ‘Whole Foods’ Bubble
It’s no secret that Democratic primary voters prize fall “electability.” But for all the clamor about progressive versus moderate choices, the obstacles to pulling voters toward Democrats — particularly in the battleground states — could prove more cultural than ideological. … In many ways, what people buy, eat and wear […] Read more »
Democrats are picking a nominee based on the factor they’re worst at evaluating
The incident that served as the best predictor of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary actually happened in 2011. That October, then-Gov. Rick Perry (R-Tex.) was leading the Republican field as the party tried to identify a candidate who could beat incumbent President Barack Obama. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, […] Read more »
Candidates say they want to build momentum with voters – but what is that actually worth?
Before the primary, Buttigieg said his campaign had the ‘strongest momentum.’ AP Photo/Mary Altaffer Daniel Palazzolo, University of Richmond and Ernest B. McGowen III, University of Richmond “I’ve got the ‘Big Mo,’” said George H. Bush after winning the Iowa caucuses in 1980. “We are the campaign with the strongest […] Read more »
Is killing Soleimani a game changer for Democrats?
… Hard as it may be to believe in the white heat of the moment, when D.C. is consumed with the story, history suggests the greatest likelihood is that it won’t have any discernable impact. Political scientists Lynn Vavreck and John Sides identified 68 events labeled “game changers” in 2012, […] Read more »
The Democratic Race: Biden 2020 as Romney 2012
Key Points • Biden’s endurance at the top of the Democratic race is reminiscent of Mitt Romney’s endurance in the 2012 Republican race. • Despite considerable liabilities, Romney benefited — and Biden benefits — from splintered opposition and being the best fit for a significant bloc of party regulars. • […] Read more »