Should Biden and Trump focus more on persuading swing voters — or mobilizing the base?

… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. […] Read more »

Great Lakes states voted against Hillary Clinton; not for Trump

A lot of things had to fall right for Donald Trump to win the presidency in 2016, but the biggest key was his ability to win key northern states that had voted Democratic for several cycles. In particular, Trump flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic in every […] Read more »

Trump likely can’t win without veteran support

… Trump’s campaign flourished in 2016 even after saying then-Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a former prisoner of war, was “not a war hero.” He won a larger share of the primary vote from active and former military members than he did from other Republican voters, according to an academically […] Read more »

Conventions Can Boost the Incumbent. Did It Work This Time?

The last two presidential re-election campaigns followed a similar playbook: define the opposition early on the most important issue, emphasize a few cultural wedge issues to rally the base while appealing to a few swing voters, and reinvigorate supporters at the convention. It was enough for George W. Bush in […] Read more »

In nearly every swing state at this point, Biden is outperforming Obama and Clinton

… While Trump and his allies have consistently raised his unexpected victory in 2016 as a reason to dismiss what the polls say, highlighting national polling pointing to a Clinton win in particular, 2020 doesn’t look like 2016 at this point. Biden’s not only outperforming where Clinton was at the […] Read more »

In-group Love and Out-group Hate: White Racial Attitudes in Contemporary U.S. Elections

… Most work in the social sciences has ignored the possibility that white Americans possess a racial identity or a sense of racial solidarity, arguing that because of their dominant status and their numerical majority, white Americans are able to take their race for granted. But in recent years, significant […] Read more »