The Mythical Swing Voter

Most surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for the Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before and after the first presidential debate. … We conclude that vote swings in 2012 were mostly sample artifacts and that real swings were quite small. While this account […] Read more »

Clinton, Sanders and the Underrated Power of the Black Voter

If you were asked to assess African-American voting power, you might think about the long history of disenfranchisement that still lingers today, in troubles in Ferguson, Mo.; in efforts to roll back the Voting Rights Act; or in recent moves to limit voting access around the country. So it can […] Read more »

Surprises Almost Certain in Iowa and New Hampshire

The voters of Iowa and New Hampshire jealously guard their first-in-the-nation franchise in the presidential nomination process, and they view themselves as the public’s screening committees for White House wannabes. … In 2016 it will be a shock if Iowa and/or New Hampshire don’t rearrange the presidential playing field. After […] Read more »

Are Primary Polls Finally Predictive? No, but This Is When the Fun Starts

You have undoubtedly heard that primary polls aren’t necessarily very predictive far from an election. With just a month to go until the Iowa caucuses, I’m writing to tell you that … it’s still true. Yes, even with that little time left until Iowa, the first contest of the 2016 […] Read more »

Forecasting models using Facebook data can be more accurate at predicting election outcomes than polling

… As Facebook morphed into a ubiquitous social utility used by seventy-one percent of Americans and “popular across a diverse mix of demographic groups,” my colleague, Ed Erickson, and I speculated that Facebook data might very well provide a reliable measure of campaign effectiveness and enable the development of a […] Read more »

The Key To The GOP Race: The Diploma Divide

The latest polls of the Republican presidential primary show a party badly divided by education: Donald Trump’s strong showings are entirely attributable to huge leads among voters without a college degree, while voters with a degree are split among several candidates. But the Republican Party’s “diploma divide” isn’t new: It […] Read more »