GOP gained ground in middle-class communities in 2016

The Republican Party made deep inroads into America’s middle-class communities in 2016. Although many middle-class areas voted for Barack Obama in 2008, they overwhelmingly favored Donald Trump in 2016, a shift that was a key to his victory. Meanwhile, Democrats had more success retaining a loose “coalition” of lower-income and […] Read more »

No, disgruntled primary losers won’t vote for the other party in November

… Some scholars say hotly contested primaries encourage voters to support the final candidate in a general election; others say that bitter partisans may support alternative candidates. To explore this question, we looked at vote choice in the 2008 presidential election, which, as is true in 2016, had no incumbent […] Read more »

A Tale of Two Elections: Clinton’s 2016 Primary Performance Versus 2008

One striking aspect of the Democratic primary race was the stark role-reversal in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance compared with her narrow loss to Barack Obama in 2008’s Democratic nomination battle. Whereas she ran against Obama in 2008, she positioned herself as his successor at every turn during her race against […] Read more »

Will Bernie Sanders supporters rally behind Hillary Clinton now? Here’s what we know.

Hillary Clinton’s declaration of victory this week has officially set in motion the effort to mend the wounds of a sometimes bitter primary contest. Party leaders hoping that Sen. Bernie Sanders’s backers will support Clinton this fall have at least one reason for optimism: There are apparently fewer hard feelings […] Read more »

Why Democratic Unity Could Be Easier to Achieve This Time: Donald Trump and Barack Obama

… There is mounting concern in Democratic Party circles that even after Clinton clinches the nomination, most likely after the California and New Jersey primaries on June 7, she will have difficulty winning over Sanders’ base of young, liberal voters, many of whom identify themselves in exit polls as independents. […] Read more »

Democrats Have Gotten More Liberal Since 2008, But Not Enough To Nominate Sanders

Bernie Sanders’s campaign has had far more success than most people (including this guy) thought it would. He has gone from a virtually unknown Vermont senator to winning a little more than 40 percent of the national Democratic primary vote. He will probably fall short of the nomination in the […] Read more »

Sanders’s Practically Unprecedented Success

By steadily increasing his support in national polls to the point where it now essentially equals Hillary Clinton’s, Bernie Sanders has crossed a threshold that few other challengers to a heavily favored front-runner have ever reached. But those gains still leave him facing a steep uphill climb to overcome her […] Read more »