Deindustrialization has decimated the blue-collar workforce in the US. … Our research examines the effects of deindustrialization on electoral politics. Specifically, we explore how deindustrialization affected voting in three US presidential elections (2008-2016), using county-level data which captures localized manufacturing job losses. Our argument is that responses to what we […] Read more »
The Georgia counties turning the state blue are growing. And quickly.
Last week, David Perdue announced he would not run to recapture his Senate seat in Georgia for the Republicans. Many in the political class wondered why a strong candidate with deep family ties and a history as an incumbent would take a pass at a chance to run again. The […] Read more »
When the V.P. Is ‘the Woman’s Spot’
… Tonight, Senator Kamala Harris will become just the third woman, and the first woman of color, to be nominated for the vice presidency on a major party ticket. Since Ms. Ferraro’s run, Hillary Clinton broke a higher barrier, becoming the Democratic nominee for president, and a historic number of […] Read more »
In nearly every swing state at this point, Biden is outperforming Obama and Clinton
… While Trump and his allies have consistently raised his unexpected victory in 2016 as a reason to dismiss what the polls say, highlighting national polling pointing to a Clinton win in particular, 2020 doesn’t look like 2016 at this point. Biden’s not only outperforming where Clinton was at the […] Read more »
Big Polling Leads Tend to Erode. Is Biden’s Edge Different?
Joe Biden’s commanding advantage in the race for the White House shows no sign of abating. … After a quarter-century of closely fought elections, it is easy to assume that wide leads are unsustainable in today’s deeply polarized country. Only Barack Obama in 2008 managed to win the national vote […] Read more »
How Fox News can turn Democrats against their eventual nominee
… One often overlooked factor that increases divisiveness in party primaries is opposing partisan media outlets. Conservative media such as Fox News and radio commentators like Rush Limbaugh can increase divisiveness among the (surprisingly many) Democrats who regularly watch or listen to their programs. CONT. Glen Smith (U. of North […] Read more »