Nate Silver, Steven Brams, Andrew Britton and Zach Messitte discuss the Ripon College commencement theme, Data and Decisions.
Americans’ Attention to IRS, Benghazi Stories Below Average
Slim majorities of Americans are very or somewhat closely following the situations involving the Internal Revenue Service (54%) and the congressional hearings on the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, and its aftermath (53%) — comparatively low based on historical measures of other news stories over the last two decades.
These results are based on a May 14-15 Gallup poll. Despite extensive news coverage of these stories in recent days, the level of attention being paid to each is below the average 60% of Americans who have closely followed more than 200 news stories Gallup has measured over the past several decades. [cont.]
Frank Newport, Gallup
Investors Expecting U.S. Markets With Best Return
International investors are the most bullish they’ve been on the U.S. and Japanese markets in more than 3-1/2 years as both countries’ economies are seen as improving, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll.
More than half of those contacted said the U.S. will be among the markets offering the best returns over the next year, a 15-point jump from the last poll in January and the highest rating for any country since the survey began asking that question in October 2009. Japan, which had been seen as a place to avoid in many of the previous polls, ranked second in the May 14 survey of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers, with one in three picking it as a market to favor. [cont.]
Rich Miller, Bloomberg
The First Ever Electoral Map?
The good folks at Handsome Atlas have scanned the entirety of the 1880 Statistical Atlas of the United States, and look what’s in there … That’s a very detailed, county-level map of the 1880 presidential election results, published in 1889. [cont.]
Seth Masket (U. of Denver), The Mischiefs of Faction
Another Change Election?
It’s not as if Democrats aren’t already looking at a tough election in 2014. They have lots of red state Senate seats to defend and few obvious GOP targets in the House. They have to prepare for the likelihood of a rough and messy implementation of the health care law they supported. Now pile on the latest White House troubles–IRS investigation of conservative non-profit groups and the Department of Justice secretly obtaining AP phone records–and you have the makings of the fourth “change election” in five years. [cont.]
Amy Walter, Cook Political Report
How the White House Scandals Could Hurt Republicans, Too
Scandals large and small are a remarkably common, if unwelcome, house guest for second-term presidents. But President Obama may not prove to be the only one hurt by the eruption of controversies around the Benghazi attack, the Internal Revenue Service’s targeting of conservative groups, and the Justice Department’s seizure of Associated Press phone records. …
These confrontations’ most predictable effect will be to enrage the GOP base, which will strengthen the party factions most dubious about any compromises with Obama. In that way, these storms will likely weaken not only the president but also Republicans who believe the party must reboot to restore its competitiveness for the White House. [cont.]
Ron Brownstein, National Journal
Republicans Should Go Easy on Obama, At Least in Public
… Although an administration under siege is never a pretty sight, it’s more the rule than the exception during second presidential terms. It is a time when the novelty of a new president has fully worn off and the public becomes increasingly open to change. These second-term problems have become as predictable as the sun coming up in the morning. The only variation is the exact timing and nature—as well as the consequences.
But as much as congressional Republicans are enjoying their schadenfreude, they would be well advised to think long and hard about their next steps. Even the most cursory look at opinion polls or focus groups reveals that the public is convinced we have an ineffectual and out-of-touch Congress that spends too much time backbiting, grandstanding, and Monday-morning quarterbacking while the country’s problems fester. [cont.]
Charlie Cook
Consumers’ Outlooks on Economy Improve to Five-Month High
Consumers’ economic outlook improved in May to its best reading in five months, showing Americans are looking beyond the current slowdown to a rebound in growth later this year.
The monthly Bloomberg consumer economic expectations gauge rose to minus 1 from minus 4 in April, a report today showed. The weekly Consumer Comfort Index slipped to minus 30.2 for the period ended May 12 from minus 29.5 the prior week, hovering around a five-year high reached at the end of last month. [cont.]
Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg
Video: The Democracy Data Revolution
The Democracy Data Revolution: Simon Jackman at TEDxSydney
Remember Civil Unions? The Shifting Middle Way in the Same-sex Marriage Debate
May 2013 is only half over, but it has been an eventful month for same-sex marriage legislation: Rhode Island, Delaware, and Minnesota all legalized same-sex marriage, bringing the total number of states with such laws to 12. Meanwhile, Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn called on the state House of Representatives to send him a law legalizing same-sex marriage, which he says he will sign. This burst of legislative movement, coupled with increasing numbers of polls showing majority support for same-sex marriage, makes it is easy to forget that until recently, this debate—and many public opinion polls—included civil unions as a viable third option. Now, many states that, like Illinois, legalized civil unions in the past decade appear to moving toward same-sex marriage.
Why have civil unions lost momentum? [cont.]
Robert Jones & Daniel Cox (PRRI), The Monkey Cage
Recent polls: Marriage, civil unions
Public Religion Research Institute