… The New York Times and Siena College have released multiple House polls over the last week. … The polls produced by Siena and the Times generally point to a House where Democrats have a slight advantage, though Republicans could still retain control. …
I went back since the 2006 election and looked at how much the polls from roughly within a month of this point in the cycle performed. (That is, polls completed from about 52 to 82 days before the election.)
The immediate thing that jumps out is the side that has won the national House popular vote has always done better on Election Day than the polls indicate right now. The average overperformance was a little over 3 points. CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN