Ratings of U.S. leadership fell in nearly every part of the world in the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, dragging median approval to a record-low 30%. Curious about the true depth of a “Trump effect” on U.S. leadership ratings, we created a model to estimate the change in the probability that a similar respondent who approved of U.S. leadership in Barack Obama’s last year also approved in Trump’s first year. The model revealed evidence of a Trump effect in all major demographics, but the effect was more acute among some groups than others. CONT.
Zacc Ritter, Gallup