2018 looks like a Democratic wave

Republican Roy Moore was the most important reason that Democrat Doug Jones won Alabama’s U.S. Senate election on Tuesday. Moore was simply an atrocious candidate. This can be seen clearly in exit poll results showing that only 41 percent of voters in this Republican stronghold had a favorable opinion of the scandal-plagued GOP nominee. In contrast, 51 percent had a favorable opinion of Jones. …

However, Jones’s victory reinforces the conclusion, based on the results of numerous special and off-year elections and other leading indicators, that 2018 is shaping up to be a Democratic wave election.

One of those leading indicators is the generic ballot — a question on numerous polls asking voters if they would prefer a Democrat or a Republican for Congress. Based on an average of recent national polls, a generic Democrat now holds a 10-point lead over a generic Republican. That is the largest Democratic advantage on the generic ballot question since 2008 and, if it continues into next fall, it would predict substantial Democratic gains in the midterm elections. CONT.

Alan Abramowitz (Emory), Washington Post

Recent polls: Generic congressional ballot