From Virginia to …

Virginia victories provided Democrats with a needed psychological shot in the arm. …

The wailing of the commentariat notwithstanding, in truth, this year’s special elections hold out even more hope for big Democratic gains in 2018 than Virginia and New Jersey, even though Democrats lost several of the high-profile specials.

The Upshot’s Nate Cohn calculated that Democrats did about 3 points better in the specials than in Virginia and New Jersey, even accounting for incumbency and other factors.

Looking at the specials only, which by definition have no incumbent, Stanford’s Doug Rivers projects a 6-point shift toward Democrats in 2018, albeit only in open seats.

Some oversimplified arithmetic would suggest a 2-point to 3-point movement to Democrats where incumbents are running, and the 6-point shift in open seats. That could be enough to shift control of the House. CONT.

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill