Did Bernie Sanders Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency?

After months out of the limelight, Hillary Clinton edged back into view recently with two fits of activity. The first was an announcement that her voters should read Verrit, a website managed by a former Clinton digital strategist that purports to post verified facts for the 65.8 million people who voted for her. One of the site’s first such facts was that Bernie Sanders helped put Donald Trump in the White House. Later on, an excerpt from Clinton’s new book leaked, in which she blames Sanders for hobbling her in the general election, though she seems far more circumspect about why she lost in general. Still, this all begs the question, did Bernie Sanders really put Donald Trump in the White House? …

It makes sense to look at how his behavior affected (if at all) the following groups:

  • Sanders voters who voted for Trump
  • Sanders voters who voted for third parties
  • Sanders voters who did not vote
  • Non-Sanders voters who did not vote for Clinton

Fortunately, the Cooperative Congressional Election Study has collected data that can help guide us in determining whether they would have voted for Clinton if not for the Sanders campaign. CONT.

Robert Wheel (a pseudonym), Sabato’s Crystal Ball