Mixed Messages on Enthusiasm and Engagement

One of the most important factors in every election is turnout. Predicting who turns out, of course, is tricky. History tells us that angry people vote. The more enraged a voter is about issues/the political environment/the candidates, the more engaged in the election they will be. There’s also been a pretty consistent pattern in recent years of who does and who doesn’t turn out in midterm years. Voters who are white, older, and more highly educated turn out more consistently than those who are younger, non-white or non-college educated. The drop off among younger/diverse voters has been problematic for Democrats in recent midterm elections (and, drop off in African-American voters was devastating for the Clinton campaign in 2016 as well). …

At this early stage in the process, there are conflicting data points about what turnout could look like next fall. CONT.

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report