Why A Trump Pivot Might Backfire

It doesn’t take much to spur pundits and reporters to declare that President Trump is on the verge of a “pivot.” Maybe new chief of staff John Kelly will bring Trump into line, Axios reported. Maybe, after the failure of the Republican health care bill last week, the White House will reach out to Democrats to work with them on tax reform and other issues, according to a Daily Caller report.

Maybe. But probably not. It’s not just that these pivot predictions have never really come true before. It’s also that, in attempting a pivot to the center, Trump would run the risk of losing more support among conservatives than he’d gain among moderates.

Trump’s problem is that there aren’t many voters who could plausibly be persuaded to join the Trump train, at least not on short notice. CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight