Forecast Model Suggests Democratic Gains Likely in 2018 Gubernatorial Contests

In addition to the entire U.S. House of Representatives and about one-third of the U.S. Senate, Americans will be choosing 36 state governors in 2018. Control of statehouses is crucial not only because many important policy decisions are made at the state level, but because the governors elected next year will, in many cases, play key roles in redrawing congressional and state legislative district lines after the 2020 census.

A forecasting model that has produced accurate predictions of the results of midterm U.S. House elections can also be used to predict the results of gubernatorial contests in midterm election years with a high degree of accuracy. CONT.

Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball