After the surprise of 2016, here’s how pollsters can do better in predicting election results

… The simplest and most popular way to combine predictions is to take the average of everyone’s predictions and then use it as a kind of index for the group’s prediction. This uses all the forecasts and hence is at least thinking along the right track. Unfortunately, however, the simple average is not a good aggregator; it doesn’t aggregate information efficiently. CONT.

Ville Satopää (INSEAD), Monkey Cage

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