Quinnipiac’s recent national poll made quite a splash when it reported a Democratic lead of 16 points on the generic Congressional ballot question. Indeed, conventional wisdom – as well as historical trends – suggests that Democrats, as the party opposite that of the new president and in the Congressional minority, are poised to take back one or both houses of Congress in the 2018 midterm elections. But is it too soon to jump to this conclusion? A look at the polling data from cycles past suggests it may be, and it should temper Democrats’ enthusiasm about the prospect of a wave election. CONT.
Kyle Clark, Public Opinion Strategies