Trump Probably Won’t Defy Midterm Gravity

The midterms will probably be rough for Donald Trump and Republicans next year.

Here’s the main reason we know that: They’re almost always rough on the president’s party. It’s one of the most consistent regularities in American politics. Usually it’s a question of whether the damage is pretty bad, really bad or catastrophic. CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight