Polling in the 2016 Election and What It Means Going Forward

The debate over what factors caused pollsters to err in 2016 is likely to continue for some time, as is the argument as to what extent the miss represents either a critical failure for the industry or simply a demonstration of overcertainty by pundits and forecasters. But regardless of the magnitude of the error, polling systematically overstated the likelihood of a Clinton win.

That’s something pollsters will have to grapple with in the next election. It’s also something that, as the country settles down to the business of governing, raises a more immediate question: how much can polls be trusted to measure the public’s support for policies? CONT.

Ariel Edwards-Levy, Natalie Jackson & Janie Velencia, Sabato’s Crystal Ball