Democrats would appear to face long odds in the 2018 U.S. House elections. They need to pick up 24 seats to take back control of the House, and there are only 23 Republicans who hold districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016. In this politically-polarized era, presidential election results strongly predict House election results, and Democrats also have to defend 12 of their own seats in districts carried by Donald Trump.
But in 2006, the last midterm election with a Republican in the White House, Democrats appeared to face even longer odds. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball