How pollsters could use social media data to improve election forecasts

Donald Trump’s Nov. 8 victory surprised almost everyone. But if pollsters had looked at Twitter, they might have recognized that the race was close — or so we learned in our recent research.

Even when polls were showing a big lead for Hillary Clinton, real-time analysis of social media was showing it getting tighter — even if you subtract the propaganda bots used by Trump staff, estimated to make up about 20 to 30 percent of the total volume of pro-Trump social media traffic. CONT.

Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini & Stefano M. Iacus (U. of Milan), The Monkey Cage

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