In forecasting the 2016 election result, modelers had a good year. Pollsters did not.

The 2016 US election forecasting field was mostly divided up between the political science modelers, pollsters and poll aggregators. Pollsters and poll aggregators use national and state-level vote intention polls to make their forecasts, and are continually updating their forecasts until Election Day. The political science modelers apply theory and evidence from the voting and elections literature to make their forecasts months before Election Day. How did each approach perform in 2016, and what does that tell us about the polling versus modeling methods? CONT.

Michael S. Lewis-Beck (U. of Iowa) & Charles Tien (CUNY), USApp