Democrats are in a hole — but it’s not why you think

… As Democrats evaluate the state of their party and look to move forward, they should remember that each election cycle is unique, and the 2018 and 2020 elections will be very different from the past four elections because a Republican occupies the White House.

Obviously, the makeup of the 2018 Senate class (25 Democrats/Independents caucusing with Democrats and only 8 Republicans) limits Democratic opportunities, but the House of Representatives suddenly became a very different battlefield with a Republican president.

Since a midterm is almost always a referendum on the sitting president, the contours of 2018 will depend on President Trump’s success and failures, as well as on Democratic recruiting and fundraising. That makes it fundamentally different from the last five general elections. CONT.

Stuart Rothenberg, Washington Post