Epic fail: How a mid-sized error led to a rash of bad forecasts

… While pollsters correctly gauged the sentiment of most slices of the electorate, they underestimated Mr Trump’s appeal to working-class whites. Although it was clear that he would run up the score with these voters, he managed to exceed even pollsters’ rosy expectations for him: projected to win them by 30 points, the national exit poll showed him winning by 39, a larger edge than Mrs Clinton’s among Latinos. The share of a state’s electorate represented by whites lacking a college degree was an almost perfect predictor of how he did relative to polling (see chart). CONT.

Economist