First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5 percent from 2.9 percent. …
Mostly, though, the number I have on my mind today is “4.” That’s because it kept coming up over and over as national polls were released today: CONT.
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight