Polls Show Pennsylvania Back In Clinton’s Firewall

At FiveThirtyEight, we generally prefer state polls to national polls. So far, though, we haven’t had much of them to work with. If you’re getting dozens of national polls every week, but just a smattering of state-level surveys — and that’s what we’ve been getting — you’re better off inferring what’s going on in the states from the trend in national polls, rather than the other way around. …

On Tuesday, we finally got a bunch of state polls to test the theory — three polls each from Quinnipiac University and Marist College. And, in fact, the new data mostly confirms our hypothesis, although with some caveats. CONT.

Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight

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