Hillary Clinton chose Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate on Friday, making a prototypical Clinton decision that adds a safe politician to her ticket. Kaine might provide a marginal electoral benefit in his home state, but in choosing him, Clinton is making the bet that she doesn’t need a splashy running mate to beat Donald Trump. …
The one positive way vice presidential picks can matter is by providing a boost to the presidential candidate in the running mate’s home state. While there’s some debate over how big that bounce can be, it’s probably, on average, a little more than 2 percentage points. You can see this in the chart below, which shows how the home state of the vice presidential nominees voted versus the nation as a whole in elections since 1920 before and after they were on the ticket. CONT.
Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight