On June 7, five states — California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota — will hold primary elections. It is the last major day of primaries of 2016, and with the Republican race already decided, almost all of the attention will be focused on the Democratic side, where 676 pledged (elected) delegates will be at stake in those five states. …
So what does the Democratic primary forecasting model predict for the June 7 primaries? The model uses four variables to predict Clinton’s margin: the percentage of a state’s primary electorate made up of African Americans, the percentage of a state’s primary electorate made up of Democratic identifiers, whether a state is in the South, and the number of other states holding primaries on the same day. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball