Americans’ party preferences during the third quarter of a midterm election year give a good indication of which party will perform better in that year’s election. Democrats’ narrow two-percentage-point advantage in party affiliation this year — 45% to 43% — shares a greater similarity with strong Republican midterm years, such as 1994, 2002 and 2010, than with the advantage held in better Democratic years like 1998 and 2006. CONT.
Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup