As Democratic U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor battles to keep the seat to which he was re-elected in 2008, the Democratic Party’s declining ability to attract conservatives in Arkansas may complicate his re-election prospects. In a state that is consistently more conservative than the nation, conservative Democrats may have been the critical ingredient to the party’s 2008 success in statewide elections. Fifteen percent of Arkansans were conservative Democrats in 2008 — four percentage points higher than the national rate, and a substantial share of the Democratic base. Since then, their numbers have dwindled, and, perhaps not coincidentally, the overall share of Arkansans identifying as or leaning Democratic has dropped by eight percentage points. CONT.
Andrew Dugan, Gallup