Revolt Against Congress: Battleground House Districts

… This survey, of the 50 most competitive Republican house districts and the 36 most competitive Democratic districts shows that the structure of the race has not changed fundamentally—despite pundits’ insistence that the Obamacare roll out is having big consequences for Democrats in 2014.

This is not to say that there has not been a price for the ACA website debacle. Other polls have not overstated the president’s drop in poll ratings, which this survey confirms. However, the pundit class is premature in thinking that the hardened impressions of the Republican Congress and the Republican Party—shaped by crisis, shutdown, and obstruction—would somehow suddenly be crowded out. Voters have not forgotten why they dislike the House Republicans, Speaker Boehner, and the Tea Party. The Republican brand hangs over their incumbents and candidates. Indeed, voters’ negativity toward Republican incumbents, John Boehner, the Republican Congress, and the Republican Party remain entrenched. CONT. (pdf)

Stan Greenberg, James Carville & Erica Seifert, Democracy Corps